The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change, Slides of Geography

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GLOBAL

DEMOGRAPHY

AND MIGRATION

Roshell Alvarado Maricris Lopez Ma. Michaela Carel

THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY

Before the start of the demographic transition, life was short, births increases, growth was slow, and the population was young. During the transition, first mortality and then fertility declined, causing population growth rates first to accelerate and then to slow again, moving toward low fertility, long life and an

The Demographic Transition:

Three Centuries of Fundamental Change

In the past, there has been great concern that rapid

population growth in third-world countries would prevent

economic development, but most economists have down-

played these fears. Similarly, environmentalists fear that

world population is already above the carrying capacity of

the biosphere, while most economists are complacent

about the projected 50 percent increase in population

over this century.

According to a famous essay by Thomas Malthus, first published in 1798, slow population growth was no accident. Population was held in equilibrium with the slowly growing economy.

Before the Demographic

Transition

Faster population growth would depress wages, causing mortality to rise due to famine, war or disease—in short, misery. Malthus called this mortality response the “positive” check. Depressed wages would also cause postponement of marriage, resulting in prostitution and other vices, including contraception; this he called the “preventive” check. Since population could potentially grow more rapidly than the economy, it was always held in check by misery and vice, which were therefore the inevitable human lot. Economic progress could help only temporarily since population could soon grow to its new equilibrium level, where misery and vice would again hold it in check.

Mortality Declines

The beginning of the world’s demographic transition occurred in northwest Europe, where mortality began a secular decline around 1800. In many low-income countries of the world, the decline in mortality began in the early twentieth century and then accelerated dramatically after World War II.

Fertility Transition

Most economic theories of fertility start with the idea

that couples wish to have a certain number of surviving

children, rather than births per se. If this assumption

holds, then once potential parents recognize an

exogenous increase in child survival, fertility should

decline. However, mortality and fertility interact in

complicated ways. For example, increased survival

raises the return on post birth investments in children

(Meltzer, 1992).

Global Demographic Trends and Patterns Crude birth and death rates One of the simplest ways to consider population growth is through crude birth and death rates. These are the number of births and deaths per 1,

people.

The total fertility rate, that is the number of children born per woman, fell from about 5 in 1950 to a little over 2.5. This decrease is attributable largely to changes in fertility in the developing world. Total fertility rate

Global Demographic Trends and Patterns Infant and child mortality decline The developing world has seen significant reductions in infant and child mortality over the past 50 years. Infant mortality in developing countries has dropped and is projected to decline further b y 2 050. Life expectancy increased and is projected to rise to 75 years by the middle of this century. As a result of the global decline in fertility, and because people are living longer, median age is rising. Life expectancy and longevity

The patterns of change in fertility, mortality and growth rates over the demo- graphic transition are widely known and understood. Less well understood are the systematic changes in age distribution that are an integral part of the demographic transition and that continue long after the other rates have stabilized. Shifts in Age Distribution: The Last Stage of the Demographic Transition

The second demographic transition entails “sustained sub-replacement fertility, a multitude of living arrangements other than marriage, the disconnection between marriage and procreation, and no stationary population” The primary driver of these trends is the cultural shift toward postmodern attitudes and norms. At the individual level, the SDT framework offers individuals’ value orientations as the principal determinants of persons’ fertility and family behavior. The Second Demographic Transition

Theoretical motivations

This value shift embodies the “Maslowian drift”- a shift toward higher-order needs of self- actualization and individual autonomy to motivate behavior once more basic needs like survival and safety have been satisfied. Maslowian drift and rise of individualism.

Theoretical motivations

They, Van de Kaa and Lesthaeghe, acknowledged that the shifts in the quality- quantity tradeoff with respect to children as a useful concept in explaining the first demographic transition. Moreover, they credit rising female labor force participation as having an important role in the SDT. Pushback against economic explanations

The dominant literature on transnationalism regards it as an alternative way of framing immigration, but the a priori exclusion of labor migrants from the scope of migrant transnationalism is untenable. Evidence from East Asia suggests that labor migrants, who are compelled by the prevailing policy regime in the region to become sojourners, engage in what can be called modular transnationalism by the state and cultural politics. Differentiating Sedimented from Modular Transnationalism: The View from East Asia

Migrant Transnationalism

It is now accepted that not all migrants engage in transnationalism, whether in the sociocultural, economic, or political sense.

• (^) Portes proposes that “It is more useful to conceptualize transnationalism as one form of economic, political, and cultural adaptation that co-exists with other, more traditional forms.
• (^) As orientation and practice, migrant transnationalism may be impelled or sustained by global or plural visions. In everyday life, it is commonly mediated by electronic telecommunications, remittance systems, and contemporary modes of travel.